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Angela Merkel is on her last lap as German Chancellor and will stand down when September’s federal election ends her fourth and final term in office. Meanwhile her party, the ruling Christian Democratic Union, is trapped in a high-stakes stand-off with its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union. The impasse? Which of their leaders should guide t…
 
The Conservatives’ beauty contest for Merkel’s potential succession is finally coming to a climax. On Sunday, CSU leader Söder threw his hat into the ring to compete with CDU leader Laschet in the race for the conservatives’ chancellor candidacy. With the CDU’s (the bigger sister party) executive body fully united behind Laschet on Monday, the scal…
 
On Monday, the Green party will present their first chancellor candidate in the 41-year party history. The leadership tandem of Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck is set to decide amongst themselves whom to field as candidate for the September elections, successfully avoiding any semblance of a power struggle. In our view, the odds appear slightly…
 
The rent cap in Berlin was clearly the main topic in the German housing market pre-COVID. Across German cities rent growth decelerated with the extensive media coverage of the Berlin rent cap. Rental growth could pick up again in several cities and regions, as many initiatives which copied the Berlin rent cap might lose momentum.…
 
Dan McLaughlin explains the background to a new flare-up in the war in eastern Ukraine between the government in Kiev and Russian-backed separatists, and the news that Russia has sent troops and tanks to its border with Ukraine for what it insists are military exercises. Why is trouble in the region increasing now, and is the threat of a major esca…
 
Brazil's Covid-19 case numbers and deaths have hit staggering new highs in the past month: over 60,000 died in March alone. Now it is facing a political crisis to match its health crisis. President Jair Bolsonaro, his authority undermined by the raging pandemic, sacked his defence minister and three top military chiefs in what looks like a struggle…
 
Merkel’s Conservatives currently face major problems. Approval rates are in free fall as trust in the government’s crisis management has eroded. The CDU/CSU is polling at pre-crisis levels of below 30% fuelling speculation that not only Merkel but the Conservatives in total might not be part of the next government. The announcement of their chancel…
 
Voters in Israel went to the polls this week in a bid to free the country of the political stalemate that has seen it hold four elections in two years.But after another cliffhanger result, the deadlock continues and it may be weeks before it becomes clear if prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu will be able to form another government.Exit polls after …
 
2020 was an extraordinary year for banks, as for most other industries. In Europe, banks barely made money, as revenues fell substantially and loan loss provisions doubled. Expense cuts cushioned the blow only partly. Capital and liquidity ratios reached record highs though, thanks to disciplined risk management and funding support from central ban…
 
Single-family homes have recently been drawn into the discussion about suitable climate-policy measures in Germany. However, arguing about whether and to what extent single-family homes contribute to climate change or consume more resources than multi-family homes simply draws away the attention from the real energy and climate-policy challenges in…
 
Our analysis suggests that the nationwide price cycle will come to an end this decade. Despite all the uncertainty, we believe the cycle is likely to end in 2024. The fundamental supply shortage should ease off in the coming years. The lower level of immigration during the pandemic is also a contributing factor. If the cycle does in fact end in 202…
 
David Folkerts-Landau, Group Chief Economist & Global Head of Research and Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economics have just published an updated outlook for the global economy and financial markets. The report is titled ‘Goldilocks with Inflation Risk’ and outlines how Goldilocks could be about to enter the global economy as conditions appear just …
 
The federal government will present a supplementary budget for 2021, which would be the third supplementary budget over the past year. The volume could reach as much as EUR 60 bn (1.7% of GDP). As a result, 2021 net federal borrowing could possibly rise to as much as EUR 240 bn (6.8% of GDP), an all-time high in German history. We still stick with …
 
The coronavirus pandemic has caused a surge in public debt and highlights the need to tackle sovereign risk on bank balance sheets, which remains a threat to the stability of the Banking Union. Euro-area banks hold bonds and have granted loans to their domestic sovereigns worth a combined EUR 2.1 tr, equalling 6.2% of total assets. Among the larges…
 
Brazil's often chaotic political scene got even more complex recently when former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's conviction for corruption was suddenly overturned. Will Lula's expected return to politics, combined with the government's disastrous pandemic response, spell the end for current right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro?…
 
When voters elect a new government in Germany this year, it will bring the curtain down on the 16 year chancellorship of Angela Merkel. In parliament since 2005, Merkel has been one of Europe’s most influential leaders, steering her country and the bloc through numerous crises. What will be the consequences of her departure from office and who will…
 
Italy's new prime minister Mario Draghi, a compromise choice asked to lead a national unity government after the collapse of the previous coalition, has several tough challenges on his hands: to administer EU Covid-19 relief funds in an effective way, to navigate the pandemic, and to retain control of the unwieldy coalition of parties that voted hi…
 
The issue of Brexit and the popularity of SNP leader and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon have put the idea of Scottish independence back on the agenda. Public opinion polls show a majority in favour, but with implacable opposition from Boris Johnson assured, what paths are there to an "Indyref 2"? Denis Staunton reports. And Guy Hedgecoe in Madrid e…
 
Suzanne Lynch reports from former president Donald Trump's Senate impeachment trial. Under attack from a well-organised prosecution, Trump's own legal team have not impressed. But will it matter?Plus, a decade after Hosni Mubarak was toppled, what remains of Egypt's revolution? We talk to Declan Walsh, chief Africa correspondent at the New York Tim…
 
A few months ago Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was lying in hospital in Berlin, recovering from being poisoned with the nerve agent Novichok. This week he was imprisoned after returning to Russia to continue his campaign against Vladimir Putin, despite the clear risks. But who is Alexei Navalny? And does his campaign have any chance of s…
 
Today on the podcast: Tom Hennigan on the dire Covid-19 situation in Brazil, where the second-highest number of people have died of the disease. A more spreadable variant of the disease has deepened the crisis, as has the corruption and dysfunction of the national response, led by anti-vaxxer President Jair Bolsonaro.…
 
Our Washington correspondent Suzanne Lynch was one of the lucky few to attend President Joe Biden's inauguration yesterday. She talks to foreign editor Chris Dooley about the message Biden sent in his address and his early policy moves. And we talk to Omar Wasow, an assistant professor of political science at Princeton University. He says the viole…
 
The race is on to roll out the coronavirus vaccine across the European Union. Denmark is sitting proudly in first place, with 2% of their population already vaccinated. All EU countries have had the same level of access to the first vaccine approved by the bloc, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, so how has Denmark managed to administer doses at such an …
 
Yesterday the world watched on in disbelief as a group of pro-Trump protesters stormed the US Capitol, in a violent display of loyalty to the president. While Congress gathered to certify the election results, thousands of flag-waving supporters broke through police barriers and gained access to the historic building, tearing through offices, break…
 
In this week's podcast, Chris Dooley speaks to foreign policy expert Thomas Wright about the incoming Joe Biden administration and the issues that the president-elect will have to deal with when he takes office in January. How will president Biden deal with China? What will an international taxation agreement mean for Ireland's relationship with th…
 
To mark the end of the year with something a little different, we asked a handful of our regular contributors - Denis Staunton, Naomi O'Leary, Sally Hayden and Derek Scally - to choose a moment or a theme that stood out for them in this most eventful of years. Happy Christmas to all our listeners from the World View team.Produced by Declan Conlon a…
 
Last month Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed a peace deal after six weeks of fierce fighting over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Tens of thousands have died and up to a million people have been displaced, since a bloody war between the two countries ended in a ceasefire in 1994. Central and eastern Europe correspondent, Daniel McLaughlin, explai…
 
A month after the US election, President Donald Trump has yet to concede to President-elect Joe Biden and continues to cry foul over the process. Despite recounts, legal challenges and Trump’s claims on Twitter that he will “win”, local officials have quietly gone about their business certifying the results. Suzanne Lynch talks us through recent ev…
 
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