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PART 1: 'Maybe the economy isn't in as good a condition as you economists / academics / technocrats think it is,' says the labor force participation rate. 'The economy is in fantastic shape,' says the unemployment rate. Which one is correct? PART 2: Labor shortages are normal, at the microscale, from time to time, in this or that industry. Yet sinc…
 
Andrew (Drew) Dickson is the founder of Albert Bridge Capital, and CIO of their European Alpha strategy. He has over 20 years of industry experience, and previously was a partner in the asset management division of Perella Weinberg Partners (PWP). He has worked as a research assistant for Richard Thaler, as well as studied under Eugene Fama, and he…
 
PART 01: A lousy labor market report for August is being blamed on a "labor shortage". Also, 'lazy Americans' and 'the delta'. But the real problem is that businesses will not pay a market-clearing wage to hire the workers they need. Why not? Because the economy is lousy. PART 02: A long-standing NBC News Survey shows John & Jane Q. Public perceive…
 
Jay Powell announced his central bank is satisfied (enough) with the economy's direction. Thus, the Fed will soon be 'tapering'; lessening the 'monetary stimulus'. What did bond-money markets say? Did they have a tantrum? No, because they don't believe what Jay believes. -----SEE EPISODE 97------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTu…
 
Mark Dow is a global macro trader and author of the blog Behavioral Macro. Previously, he worked as a policy economist at the U.S. Treasury and the International Monetary Fund, after which he was a senior Portfolio Manager at Pharo Capital, a $10B fund. Here he talks about why QE isn't money printing, what's driving markets, narratives and much mor…
 
Harley Bassman created, marketed and traded a wide variety of derivative and structured products during his twenty six year career at Merrill Lynch, and focused on pricing and modelling products that had an asymmetric return - what he calls convexity. He is the Managing Partner at Simplify Asset Management, and pens macro commentary at convexitymav…
 
PART 01: What did the Federal Reserve think about gold and the Nixon Shock in 1971? According to the transcripts they didn't think much about gold, neither pre- nor post-announcement. The Fed did not see the move as a release from its 'golden fetters' so as to dominate the monetary order. PART 02: The US Treasury Department released their Treasury …
 
Joseph spent 5 years studying the plumbing of the financial system as a senior trader on the open markets desk. The Desk sits at the center of the dollar system as its ultimate and infinite provider of dollars. It has access to virtually all regulatory and financial data, as well as open lines of communication with all major market participants. - …
 
PART 01: Inflation is a broad, sustained monetary phenomenon. Price deviations in a narrow set of economic sectors, though they last months, are just that: price deviations. Today's high CPI-readings will in all likelihood subsumed by the global monetary disorder, like in 2008 and 2011. PART 02: A review of July's HUGE increase in consumer prices. …
 
Michael Kao has been the manager of Akanthos Capital Management since 2002, and Mike ran an opportunistic, value-driven investment strategy that looked for “fulcrum securities” up and down the capital structure. He has been investing for 30 years and shares his views on the oil supercycle, cap structure arb, trading commodities and more!…
 
Mr. Sheriff presently serves as the Executive Chairman of enCore Energy Corp. An entrepreneur and visionary with over 30 years’ experience in the minerals industry and the securities industry, and has been responsible for capital raises in excess of $300MM. Mr. Sheriff was a pioneer in the uranium renaissance as co-founder and Chairman of Energy Me…
 
PART 01: Fifty years ago the "Nixon Shock" closed the 'Gold Window' on "international speculators" and killed the Bretton Woods gold exchange era. That's what we're told. Actually, Bretton Woods died a decade (or more!) earlier; it's just that we only noticed in 1971. PART 02: The IMF will 'print' $650 billion -- BILLION! -- in SDR-money to help wi…
 
PART 01: Gold Slams! Rapid, huge sales in early morning hours are warnings about a malfunction deep within the plumbing of global capital flows. They're also multi-week, precipitous price declines. We review the last few months of gold price to triangulate if the pipes are rattling warnings. PART 02: Foreigners were heavily selling US Treasuries in…
 
FRONTLINE critiques the Fed for showering big banks, big business and Wall Street with easy money, which reached neither the real economy nor the vast majority of Americans. Yes to the latter, but no-no-no-no to the former. ----SEE EPISODE 92----- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR EPISODE 92---- …
 
Early-morning action in the repo market shows a musical chairs-like collateral scramble; it has the Fed's attention. But the Fed is blasé about it (i.e. 'too much cash'). Yet these collateral scrambles resemble what we saw in March 2020. ----SEE EPISODE #91---- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR E…
 
Professor Sam Williamson, economic historian, explains how the value of commodities, projects and income/wealth should be properly measured across time (AND IT IS NOT WITH A CPI INDEX!). Otherwise, like a recent NY Times article, your worth may be off by a factor of 20!!!! --------EP. 90 REFERENCES-------- Measuring Worth: https://bit.ly/36TfZZD Me…
 
PART 01: Jay Powell has confirmed a surging Fed program (RRP) is partly the result of safe-asset demand. But he plays it off as a monetary technicality, mere arcana. Nope! Safe-asset scarcity is step one along a well-trod path towards a malfunctioning economy. Here's what happens next. PART 02: The People's Bank of China lowers its bank Required Re…
 
PART 01: When the US Treasury yield curve inverts it is a warning that recession is on the horizon. What about when the Eurodollar Futures yield curve rolls over on its back? Not good news either. Would you believe that there's a kink in the curve now? Would you believe it's not great news? PART 02: The yields on German sovereign bonds began to tum…
 
Non-economist, monetary iconoclast Jeff Snider's commentary on the the 'big news' about the 'hawkish' new Fed forecast implying economic recovery championed by the business press while at the same time an underlying liquidity reading (RRP) glows orange. A warning. And a reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra In…
 
Non-economist, monetary iconoclast Jeff Snider's commentary on yet another central bank study concluding that there are TANGIBLE problems with quantitative easing and what benefits can be observed are INTANGIBLE. Sweden's Riksbank observes collateral shortages. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investmen…
 
Non-economist, monetary iconoclast Jeff Snider's commentary on why inflation is unwelcome directly and welcome indirectly. Also, economic depression and hopelessness have struck the United States many times. A review of contemporary accounts of despair and hope about the future from the 19th and 20th centuries. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ------…
 
PART 01: After the Federal Reserve raised the return on one of its bank programs, a record $756 billion flowed into the central bank’s reverse repo facility. Jerome Powel said, "We're not concerned." He should be. Like the Fed should've been in 2017 when something similar happened. A warning. Again. PART 02: How is it possible 14 years of data show…
 
Jim is the founder of Falcon Management, and he is one of the greatest macro investors of all time. Here we discuss his research process, his process for trading currencies, risk, position sizing and much more! If you want to contact Jim about anything, feel free to email him at jleitner@falconmgt.com!…
 
Daniel Want, the early-21st century Australian philosopher and Chief Investment Officer of Prerequisite Capital, discusses: absence of knowledge at educational institutions, transitory inflation, first principles, disconnected markets, justice as prerequisite and the unified magnitude of the crisis. --------REFERENCES-------- Prerequisite Capital: …
 
PART 01: What should a central bank be? What does one do? Is what the Fed does 'central banking'? What did Ben Bernanke promise in 2002 that the Fed would never do again -- learning the lesson of the 1930s -- and how did he break his promise less than 5 years later? PART 02: In March 2020 long-term US Treasury yields shot higher - why? Aren't these…
 
Historian and political economist Daniel Oliver's commentary on why the quantity of currency is less important than the quality of the collateral backing it. In the USA the quality of the Federal Reserve's assets suggests two options remain: searing hyperinflation or wrenching austerity. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Daniel…
 
PART 01: All of a sudden the Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo Program has exploded higher to half-a-trillion dollars. Why? The mainstream, orthodox narrative is that 'this is fine'; a response to 'too many bank reserves'. What does it really mean? Collateral scarcity. Systemic fragility. A warning. PART 02: Chile, one of the 20th-century's rare econo…
 
PART 01: On May 26, 2021 the Earth will witness a Super Flower Blood Moon - a sure sign of the apocalypse (again). It is no wonder then that, with the end upon us all, the Federal Reserve took the opportunity to confess in their recent meeting minutes that bank reserves are not money. PART 02: There may be no better view into the incomprehensibly c…
 
"Inflation" is a generalized, sustained increase in consumer prices. A spike in consumer prices is just that - a transitory spike. Watch as Jeff gives four reasons and examples (2000, 2008, 2021 bond yields and auctions) why the probabilities favor a rise in CPI, not "inflation". ---------SEE IT----------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy E…
 
Historian and geopolitical strategist George Friedman's commentary on two concepts of international relations: a liberal international order and a rules-based system. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is "South Is That Way" by Lo…
 
PART 01: In the 1930s the economic devastation was so bad that only radical solutions remained. But then, like now in our Silent Depression, radicalism does not mean success necessarily. The key is to first understand why the devastation in the first place. Otherwise? Dictators. PART 02: Starting in October 2019 the Federal Reserve began to buy US …
 
Geopolitical analyst Allison Fedirka explains what made some countries socioeconomic success stories, where the next emerging market stars may be, and whether a decentralized international balance is in our future. ---------SEE IT----------- Geopolitical Futures: https://bit.ly/3hv7Px0 LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3eN7qEi Twitter: https://twitter.com/A…
 
Might the economy take off? According to a Wall Street Journal opinion column, solid wage growth and unfilled openings point to much less labor market slack than headline unemployment data. Jeff Snider reacts live. ---------SEE IT----------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ---------HEAR IT---------- Vur…
 
From 2009-12 Buffett warned that emergency monetary and fiscal action would stoke inflation, that the dollar was in the hands of a profligate Congress and that Treasuries would lose real value. He was wrong. Now he's back. "Number one rule of Wall Street: nobody - I don't care if you're Warren Buffett or Jimmy Buffett - nobody knows if the stock's …
 
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