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The Chinese reported how their economy has fared in the month of April 2022 - the results were very, very poor. It is tempting to say the illness is Beijing's 'Zero Covid' lockdown of hundreds of millions of souls. But the true illness is the long-term, degenerative money shortage. ----EP. 235 REFERENCES---- Synchronized Not Coronavirus: https://bi…
 
The Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates while the European Central Bank is in no rush to raise its policy rates. The Economics Textbook and Financial Media say that is why the dollar is rising and the euro is falling: interest rate differentials. But that is not it! ----EP. 234 REFERENCES---- What Really ‘Raises’ The Rising ‘Dollar’: https://b…
 
US Treasury Bills are trading below the 'floor' set by the Federal Reserve. Why? Why guarantee less return with Treasury Bills when the Fed is promising more?! Because the market will suffer the lost return when the financial system is short monetary collateral (like UST Bills). ----EP. 233 REFERENCES---- Collateral Shortage…From *A* Fed Perspectiv…
 
In 1928 American economist Irving Fischer published a book titled "The Money Illusion" in which he explained the difference between nominal numbers (Japan's exports are booming! Imports are surging!) and inflation-adjusted, real numbers (Japan's exports are falling! Imports are stagnating!). ----EP. 232 REFERENCES---- What We Can Learn From Japan A…
 
President Xi Jingping has, according to Western financial media, announced an 'all out' infrastructure spending spree stimulus to goose the Chinese economy. What will this spending be on? On tightening the security state. More observation, more tracking, more control. ----EP. 231 REFERENCES---- Synchronized Manufacturing, Hopefully Not Mao: https:/…
 
The public utility of commodity-based money was in retreat long before President Roosevelt confiscated gold. That has implications as to whether the 1970s Petrodollar was a real monetary system, as well as whether we are moving towards a commodity-based system now, a Bretton Woods 3. ----EP. 230 REFERENCES---- The Root of the Petrodollar Error Is T…
 
Nicholas Black, professional raconteur of crypto and gentleman broadcaster, explains what stablecoins are while Jeff Snider, student of the global monetary order, considers whether algorithmic stablecoins are the next evolutionary step in monetary history. ----EP. 229 REFERENCES---- *The* Monetary Answer: Undoing The Biggest Money Mistake of the Pa…
 
The International Monetary Fund has downgraded the global economy with its latest World Economic Outlook. This is no surprise to those who have been following the monetary system's warnings since 2021. Right on cue, the United States reported economic contraction in Q4 2021. ----EP. 228 REFERENCES---- One More For Euro$ #5: The Mainstream Downgrade…
 
The Chinese currency is an important indicator of global financial conditions. When it is appreciating we can presume conditions are benign. When it is depreciating? Conditions may be malign. And what about when it falls through a trap door? ----EP. 227 REFERENCES---- CNY’s Drop Wasn’t ‘Devaluation’ in ’15 nor ’18, and It Isn’t ‘Devaluation’ Now: h…
 
Jeff Snider 'takes calls' from listeners across the globe. Your hottest requests! Playing the hits! Only on WFED 89.7 FM, The Reserve! Also, do callers play 'The U' in the background while making love? What does Jeff think about being responsible for bringing life into the world? ----EP. 226 REFERENCES---- Twitter Spaces: https://bit.ly/3vW4vk9 Alh…
 
Since August 9, 2007 the global economy has been rocked by four world or regional dollar / money / credit shortages (2007-09, 2011-12, 2014-16, 2018-20). It is official, #5 has begun. We know for sure because of the US dollar's upward trajectory is approaching escape velocity. ----EP. 225 REFERENCES---- I’m ‘Officially’ Calling It: Euro$ #5: https:…
 
An insider's view of financial collateral, regulations, bond markets, bank reserves, central banks, quantitative easing and more! Alfonso "Macro Alf" Peccatiello of The Macro Compass joins Jeff Snider (and Emil). ----EP. 224 REFERENCES---- Interview with Macro Alf on Banks, Money & Macro [Eurodollar University, Ep. 194] https://youtu.be/9cYHTTkykXk…
 
Primary Dealers are failing to deliver and failing to receive collateral used to secure short-term funding at levels last seen in March 2020; the COVID-POCALYPSE BUST UP! These repurchase agreement fails are a warning that the monetary system is under significant strain. ----EP. 223 REFERENCES---- Yield Curve Inversion Was/Is Absolutely All About C…
 
The price of oil is very high, causing consumer prices to rise and it is because of the Federal Reserve. BUT NOT WHY YOU THINK! The Fed does not create real-economy money and their inability to create it - or encourage private banks to - has resulted in NOT ENOUGH MONEY. Lack of money to invest in oil production. ----EP. 222 REFERENCES---- I Told Y…
 
Paul Volcker is widely credited in ending the 1970s Great Inflation with stratospheric rate hikes, purposefully pushing the USA into recession. Balderdash! Volcker blinked when rates spiked (secretly trying to unwind them). And it was stratospheric oil prices that brought on recession (as 'all' contemporary accounts agreed). ----EP. 221 REFERENCES-…
 
Commodity prices are volatile. Supply is suspect and demand is dicey. So, what does the future hold for platinum? A review of the supply and demand fundamentals with Wilma Swarts. Also, Daniel Want analyzes capital flows and potential pain points. -----SEE IT ----- YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR IT----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple…
 
The Economist worries that South Korea is mimicking 1980s' Japan—before the bust and lost decades; they may be right. The Bank for International Settlements' five early warning indicators show Korea has tripped ALL FIVE thresholds! ----EP. 219 REFERENCES---- Kindred Seoul: https://econ.st/3JHB36h Early warning indicators of banking crises (expandin…
 
The US Treasury yield curve has inverted, a capital market klaxon warning that the US is on course for a recession. When did markets begin to move towards inversion? October 2021. What happened then? The debt 'ceiling' (melo)drama. ----EP. 218 REFERENCES---- *Every* Time, Debt Ceiling Impacts Collateral Producing Inevitable Deflationary Currency: h…
 
Zoltan Pozsar says a commodity-based, China-led monetary order—Bretton Woods III—is upon us, resulting in the decline of the US dollar and escalating repudiation of US Treasuries. This is not going to happen! China doesn't want it; neither do exporters nor commodity producers. ----EP. 217 REFERENCES---- (Credit Suisse) Bretton Woods III: https://bi…
 
Michael Green, professional gentleman of capital market structure, explains why US Treasury yields are rising, why options for Eurodollar future negative yields are gaining value, and why the balance of probabilities favors monetary / economic disinflation / deflation, not expansion, growth or inflation. -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Alhambra YouTube:…
 
Petrodollar? There's no such thing. We didn't transition from a gold- to an oil-backed dollar. There was something else, another kind of dollar—hidden by a conspiracy of silence between '44 and '73. Instead the world transitioned from a gold-backed US dollar to a offshore, ledger-based bank-centered eurodollar. This same eurodollar system absorbed …
 
In the middle (1937-38) of the Great Depression (1929-47) the Federal Reserve FREAKED out about accelerating consumer prices and the EXCESS supply of bank reserves, so they started to hike rates. During a depression!! Rinse and repeat (2022-2?) during the Silent Depression (2007-2?). ----EP. 214 REFERENCES---- Curve Wars: Short Follows Long Because…
 
Americans' real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) stopped improving way back in October 2021. Would you believe that the US Treasury yield curve began to move towards inversion the very same month?! Now the curve has inverted, a warning that economic recession is probable. Welcome to Hades. ----EP. 213 REFERENCES---- The Short, Sweet In…
 
In the 1960s the Bank for International Settlements investigated the offshore, shadow-money system and found it straightforward and to be ignored. In the 1970s the Federal Reserve said same system had become complex and difficult to define; it then told the US Congress to ignore it. ----EP. 212 REFERENCES---- Volcker’s Petrodollar Bigfoot; Or Why C…
 
The spread between the 7-year and 10-year US Treasury has been a leading indicator of US recession and/or global or regional capital liquidity shortages. We review the inversion and flattening from 1990 to the present. ----EP. 211 REFERENCES---- Long-end Inversion *Does* Indicate Recession Risks Are Actually Elevated: https://bit.ly/377fY7I Alhambr…
 
A review of US 2021 Q4 GDP helps explain how surging demand, in concert with mauled logistical supply chains, caused blowout consumer price levels. Also, thoughts on gross domestic income and why real business income is less robust than nominal income. ----EP. 210 REFERENCES---- GDP (and GDI) Lays Out The Perfect Supply Shock Case, And Its Downside…
 
The US Treasury yield and Eurodollar futures curves are inverted, strongly suggesting US recession and/or global monetary disorder lies ahead. This did not happen overnight! When did markets begin their journey to recession warnings? In October 2021. But why? ----EP. 209 REFERENCES---- Inversions And Inventory, The Major Products of October: https:…
 
Algorithmic stablecoins may be the solution to our 15-year monetary malfunction. We consider where and if stablecoins fit into money creation, intermediation and whether they'd be units of account, stores of wealth and/or mediums of exchange. ----EP. 208 REFERENCES---- *The* Monetary Answer: Undoing The Biggest Money Mistake of the Past: https://bi…
 
The Federal Reserve's rate hike increased the reverse repo program rate, the so-called rate "floor". But why then are the 4- and 8-week US Treasury Bills trading BELOW the floor? Because there's a collateral shortfall. A monetary deflation perhaps? ----EP. 207 REFERENCES---- The Fed Inadvertently Adds To Our Ironclad Collateral Case Which Does Seem…
 
The US Treasury yield curve inversion is EXPANDING. It has now subsumed the 3-year note under a tide of negative economic expectations. This is the monetary system's warning claxon, but are the authorities listening? (No.) ----EP. 205 REFERENCES---- Inversion Is The Real March Madness, Just Don’t Take It Literally: https://bit.ly/3JF2lLt Alhambra I…
 
The US Treasury yield curve has inverted, strongly implying economic weakness and likely US recession. But can we identify purely monetary (i.e. non-economic) reasons for the inversion? Yes! Like tri-party repurchase agreements. ----EP. 205 REFERENCES---- There Is An Absolutely Solid Collateral Case For What’s Driving Curve Inversion(s) [Part 2]: h…
 
The US Treasury yield curve has inverted, likely because the US economy is weak sauce. But what if we focused solely on shadow-money variables? Can we confirm the inversion warning via measures of shadow-collateral? (Yes) ----EP. 204 REFERENCES---- There Is An Absolutely Solid Collateral Case For What’s Driving Curve Inversion(s) [Part 1]: https://…
 
The US Treasury curve has inverted. The countdown to the next American recession has begun. We review what happened, where the inversion is in the yield curve and whether there are enough life jackets for everyone (no). ----EP. 203 REFERENCES---- Another One Inverts, The Retching Cat Reaches Treasuries: https://bit.ly/3KZc9Am Alhambra Investments B…
 
An update on the US Treasury yield and Eurodollar futures curve shapes. Distorted? Contemplative? Grotesque? Retching cat chart pattern? ----EP. 202 REFERENCES---- Odd Curve Shapes, or More Chinese Than Russian: https://bit.ly/3IfGwAG Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 -----SEE ALL …
 
The 1940s witnessed monstrous increases in consumer prices. But it wasn't inflation. In the 1960s? Smaller increases, but it was inflation. What's the difference? What about today? -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR ALL EPISODES----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: …
 
You won't believe it but Janet Yellen said in 2013 that narrative supply - not money supply - can be an effective tool. Turns out most Fed action is just popular psychology and the madness of crowds. -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR ALL EPISODES----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMc…
 
Repurchase agreements are short-term collateralized loans made amongst banks. What happens when one party refuses to return the collateral? It's a "fail". They happen in swarms during unhealthy monetary conditions. They're happening now. -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR ALL EPISODES----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly…
 
Russia has been told they're out of SWIFT! Kind of. And not right away. And only some Russian banks, kind of. Does it matter? What is SWIFT? ----HEAR ALL EPISODES----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza…
 
On February 24, 2021 Fedwire broke down for several hours - it was the the feather that broke the economic recovery camel's back. Copper, gold, silver, the yuan, Kiwi dollar, Treasuries, swap spreads, OATs - even bitcoin - all saw their trajectories change for the worse. ------EP. 196 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: Fedwire broke for hours on February 24…
 
A look at interest rate swap spreads relative to nominal US Treasury yields identifies constrained bank balance sheet capacity. Monetary measures like swap spreads, Eurodollar futures, yield curve flattening are all indicating that the balance of risks is tilting away from recovery and reflation. ------EP. 195 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: Interest rat…
 
An insider's view of regulations, bond markets, bank reserves, central banks, quantitative easing, fancy wines, when it's inappropriate to drink cappuccinos, government-guaranteed bank loans and more! Alfonso "Macro Alf" Peccatiello of The Macro Compass joins Jeff Snider (and Emil). ------EP. 194 TOPICS------ 00:00:00 INTRO: Introducing Alfonso Pec…
 
Mohamed El-Erian appeared on Hidden Forces, a great podcast by Demitri Kofinas. But instead of challenging consensus narratives or thinking critically about the power shaping our world El-Erian obfuscated and misdirected Kofinas and the audience about economics, the Fed and history. ------EP. 193 TOPICS------ 00:00:00 INTRO: Reviewing Mohamed El-Er…
 
Anne Stevenson-Yang has been living in, writing about and/or focusing her work on China for more than 35 years. We discuss: employment not being a bureaucrat's concern, the transition to uneconomic activity, disinterest in simple social improvements, the 20th National Party Congress, and more! ------EP. 191 TOPICS------ 00:00:00 INTRO: Anne Stevens…
 
Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski dive into debunking central banking myths, explaining the effects of the past on our current time, and more in this November 2021 episode of Blockworks' "On the Margin" with Mike Ippolito. Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski dive into debunking central banking myths, explaining the effects of the past on our current time, an…
 
A collateral call in Belgium! Foreign officials are selling US Treasuries! American banks extending less credit to the rest of the world! Japan borrowing more! These, and other, *nerdy* insights for December 2021 from the Treasury International Capital System! Tell all your friends! ------EP. 190 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: TIC data for December was …
 
Consumer inflation expectations peaked in October/November 2021, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations. Market based inflation expectations (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) also peaked then. What in the CPI is going on here? ------EP. 189 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: The Federal Reserve intends to…
 
Caution! Ignore this market warning at your peril. The Eurodollar futures market inversion had deepened and broadened. Eurodollar yields inverted before, for example in 2000, 2005 and 2018. Turned out that Economic Hades was about 18 months away then. What about now? ------EP. 188 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: The Eurodollar futures curve has deepened …
 
The US government bond market appears to be out of step with CPI, a booming economy and money printing by central banks - what gives? We review two Federal Reserve officials explain that QE is very, really, super powerful (and that's why the bond market signals are haywire). ------EP. 187 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: Federal Reserve officials say QE i…
 
Journalists Kate Duguid and Eric Platt explain that US government bond markets believe the Federal Reserve will be able to tame inflation. Actually bond markets believe the Fed doesn't know what it's doing AND they believe consumer prices increases are not caused by the Fed. ------EP. 186 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: The Financial Times says the Feder…
 
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