019 | Mental Models 2: How To Think Like A Bayesian, Avoid Black Swans, & Know The Value of Your Decisions

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Manage episode 245164696 series 2519888
By Gianluca Truda and Jared Tumiel, Gianluca Truda, and Jared Tumiel. Discovered by Player FM and our community — copyright is owned by the publisher, not Player FM, and audio is streamed directly from their servers. Hit the Subscribe button to track updates in Player FM, or paste the feed URL into other podcast apps.

This is part 2 of our series on Mental Models. In it, we’re bringing you the most useful and applicable models we’ve encountered in everything we’ve read, heard or seen over the years! In part 2 we unpack models from Bayesian reasoning, calibration, and expected value. We also cover fat-tailed distributions, counterfactual reasoning, inversion, and red-teaming. Throughout, we build up each model with examples and motivations, and often found ourselves making previously unseen (by us) links to other models which gave us several new insights. We hope this conversation will do the same for you!

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Shownotes:

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Farnam Street Blog - https://fs.blog

Calibration training app by 80 000 Hours - https://80000hours.org/calibration-training/

Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23995360-superforecasting

0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QGkYCwyC7wTDyt3yT/0-and-1-are-not-probabilities

Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35957157-thinking-in-bets

The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/242472.The_Black_Swan

CGP Grey on 7 Ways To Maximise Misery - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LO1mTELoj6o

Claude Shannon on Creative Thinking - https://jamesclear.com/great-speeches/creative-thinking-by-claude-shannon

The Bottom Line - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/34XxbRFe54FycoCDw/the-bottom-line

30 episodes