Coronavirus Crisis Update: Chris Murray, America’s Reopening


Manage episode 280230649 series 1325257
By CSIS Global Health Policy Center | Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS Global Health Policy Center | Center for Strategic, and International Studies. Discovered by Player FM and our community — copyright is owned by the publisher, not Player FM, and audio is streamed directly from their servers. Hit the Subscribe button to track updates in Player FM, or paste the feed URL into other podcast apps.

Chris Murray, the renowned modeler, joined us to share his year-end reflections. In this year unlike any other, Covid-19 pushed modeling onto new ground, as forecasting of individual and governmental behavior became essential to inform decisions in the near to medium term. It’s been “a steep learning curve.” Looking ahead to 2021, in Q1 and 2 we will see a profound pivot, as vaccinations are scaled, winter ends, government policies evolve, and immunity within the population rises. We should arrive at “a surprisingly decent place in June or July.” As we “bounce back to pre-Covid behavior,” it will be a “balancing act.” Success in reaching herd immunity rests on a campaign to get “the maybes,” upwards of 30 percent of the population, while the 15-20 percent of “straight refusers” won’t budge. A vitally important “lingering question:” will we have attained enough vaccine coverage that nothing terrible happens in the winter of 2021-2022?

Chris Murray is the Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.

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